In 2005, captures of overwintered adult plum curculios, Conotrachelus nenuphar (Herbst) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), in standard black masonite pyramid traps deployed in apple (Malus spp.) orchards from half-inch green until fruit reached 7 mm and baited with known attractants did not result in significant captures compared with unbaited traps as they had in 2003 and 2004. These baits included the synthetic aggregation pheromone, grandisoic acid (GA) alone, a six-component synthetic host plant volatile combination (6-Tree) identified from foliar and woody tissues of a Stanley plum tree in combination with GA (6-Tree GA), and the synthetic fruit volatile benzaldehyde (BEN) in combination with GA (BEN GA). In 2005, the average daily temperature was below 13°C, much cooler than in 2003 and 2004. We hypothesized that plum curculio could not discriminate between baited and unbaited traps because of reduced release rates of odor-bait stimuli due to their temperature-driven release system. From data collected from 2003 to 2005, we found that plum curculio captures in traps baited with GA alone, 6-Tree GA, and BEN GA were significantly related to temperature. We created a predictive model to determine the level of activity, i.e., trap captures in baited traps compared with unbaited traps, we would expect to observe at a particular temperature for these same odor stimuli. Our models predicts that at temperatures between ≈11 to 13°C we would expect to see no difference between captures in baited and unbaited traps. For captures in odor-baited traps to reach twice those in unbaited traps, our model predicts that temperatures must reach 19.2°C for GA alone, 18.5°C for 6-Tree GA, and 15.8°C for BEN GA.